Overhead Alberta Aurora Possible July 23
30% probability of Overhead Alberta Aurora July 23 +/-24hrs
Cause: Combination of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) from July 20 and 21
Quiet to active conditions are expected through 24 Jul under negative polarity CH HSS effects combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 20 and 21 July beginning on late day one (23 Jul). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Jul if the latter of the two events arrives at Earth. Again, modeling suggests that a bulk of the material from this event should pass north and ahead of Earth, but higher levels of geomagnetic storming (25% for G2 or greater) cannot be ruled out if this event is indeed more Earth-directed than predicted.
- Space Weather Prediction Center
Expectations
Overhead/KP5 Aurora can be 100's of kms long over Alberta, can often be seen throughout the province from rural areas.
Locations: anywhere in Alberta with clear skies
Edmonton Latitudes
KP4 can be seen halfway up the northern sky, approaching overhead
KP5/G1 can be seen overhead
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead and possibly under urban skies
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the entire sky and possibly under urban skies
Calgary Latitudes
KP4 can be halfway up the northern sky
KP5/G1 can approach overhead
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead and possibly under urban skies
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the entire sky and possibly under urban skies
In the Mountains
KP4 Aurora may not be high enough to be visible over the mountains
KP5/G1 can peek over the mountain tops
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the entire sky and possibly under urban skies
Lethbridge Latitudes
KP4 Aurora may be visible on the northern horizon
KP5/G1 can can be halfway up the northern sky
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the entire sky and possibly under urban skies
Etiquette
If you're in an area with a lot of people, there will be cars with headlights on; don't let it upset you.
If you're parking in a place with a lot of people, try to turn your headlights off if possible
Drive carefully, park your car fully off the road
Stay off of private property
Forecast sources
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-geomag-forecast.txt
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
SpaceWeatherLive