Full Sky Alberta Aurora Possible April 16

35% probability of Full Sky Alberta Aurora Apr 16 +/-24hrs

Cause: Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) associated with Apr 13 filament eruptions

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 14-15 Apr as CH influence wanes. An increase in geomagnetic activity is likely on 16 Apr, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely, in response the anticipated arrival of the CMEs that left the Sun on 13 Apr.

• What can we expect?

  • Full Sky Aurura Aurora can fill the entire sky over Alberta, and at times may be visible only in the southern part of our sky.

• What happened?

  • A large Coronal Hole is currently directed at Earth.

• Tips for observing Aurora from Alberta

  • Aurora is typically strongest in the hours around Midnight

  • An event such as this could be visible in the northern skies shortly after dusk

  • If possible, head outside of the city

    • Even if Aurora is visible within the city, colours will be most vibrant away from city lights

    • Don't park on the sides of highways, this is dangerous and illegal.

    • Use a location with a public parking lot (rural community halls and provincial parks offer great parking options)

    • Stay off of private property

    • There could be a lot of observers on the roads, so drive safely and watch out for others

• Photography tips

  • Use a tripod, or some means to stabilize your camera/phone

  • If possible, set your camera to Manual

    • Aperture: lowest possible value

    • ISO: middle of the camera's range

    • Shutter: 5 to 30 seconds, depending on brightness of results

  • Use a distant point of light to manually focus the camera

  • Newer phones (iPhone, Android) 

    • Use Night Mode

  • Older iPhones

    • Use the NightCap App and the Manual tips above

  • Older Android

    • Use Pro Mode, and the Manual tips above

Expectations

Full Sky (KP7 or greater) Aurora can be 100's of kms long over Alberta, can often be seen throughout the province, and possibly from within urban areas.

• Locations: anywhere in Alberta with clear skies

Edmonton Latitudes

• KP4 can be seen halfway up the northern sky, approaching overhead

• KP5/G1 can be seen overhead

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

Calgary Latitudes

• KP4 can be halfway up the northern sky

• KP5/G1 can approach overhead

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

In the Mountains

• KP4 Aurora may not be high enough to be visible over the mountains

• KP5/G1 can peek over the mountain tops

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

Lethbridge Latitudes

• KP4 Aurora may be visible on the northern horizon

• KP5/G1 can can be halfway up the northern sky

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

Etiquette

• If you're in an area with a lot of people, there will be cars with headlights on; don't let it upset you.

• If you're parking in a place with a lot of people, try to turn your headlights off if possible

• Drive carefully, park your car fully off the road

• Stay off of private property

Forecast sources
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-geomag-forecast.txt
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
SpaceWeatherLive