Full Sky Alberta Aurora Possible March 22

55% probability of Full Sky Alberta Aurora Mar 22 +/-24hrs

Cause: Fast moving Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the March 21 M1.4 solar flare.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, for the remainder of 22 Mar. Isolated G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23 Mar due to the arrival of a fast, but faint CME that left the Sun on 21 Mar. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Mar as lingering CME and negative polarity CH HSS effects wane..

• What can we expect?

  • G3 Aurora can fill the entire sky over Alberta, and at times may be visible only in the southern part of our sky.

  • Aurora could be visible during the evening of Dec 30/ morning of Dec 31

• What happened?

  • A solar flare from December 29 sent a coronal mass ejection toward Earth.

  • This CME is anticipated to begin arriving in the sometime in the evening of Dec 30.

  • If this CME interacts with Earth favourably, this could result in a very strong Aurora visible across Alberta.

• Tips for observing Aurora from Alberta

  • Aurora is typically strongest in the hours around Midnight

  • An event such as this could be visible in the northern skies shortly after dusk

  • If possible, head outside of the city

    • Even if Aurora is visible within the city, colours will be most vibrant away from city lights

    • Don't park on the sides of highways, this is dangerous and illegal.

    • Use a location with a public parking lot (rural community halls and provincial parks offer great parking options)

    • Stay off of private property

    • There could be a lot of observers on the roads, so drive safely and watch out for others

• Photography tips

  • Use a tripod, or some means to stabilize your camera/phone

  • If possible, set your camera to Manual

    • Aperture: lowest possible value

    • ISO: middle of the camera's range

    • Shutter: 5 to 30 seconds, depending on brightness of results

  • Use a distant point of light to manually focus the camera

  • Newer phones (iPhone, Android) 

    • Use Night Mode

  • Older iPhones

    • Use the NightCap App and the Manual tips above

  • Older Android

    • Use Pro Mode, and the Manual tips above

Expectations

Full Sky (KP7 or greater) Aurora can be 100's of kms long over Alberta, can often be seen throughout the province, and possibly from within urban areas.

• Locations: anywhere in Alberta with clear skies

Edmonton Latitudes

• KP4 can be seen halfway up the northern sky, approaching overhead

• KP5/G1 can be seen overhead

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

Calgary Latitudes

• KP4 can be halfway up the northern sky

• KP5/G1 can approach overhead

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

In the Mountains

• KP4 Aurora may not be high enough to be visible over the mountains

• KP5/G1 can peek over the mountain tops

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

Lethbridge Latitudes

• KP4 Aurora may be visible on the northern horizon

• KP5/G1 can can be halfway up the northern sky

• KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead

• KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies

Etiquette

• If you're in an area with a lot of people, there will be cars with headlights on; don't let it upset you.

• If you're parking in a place with a lot of people, try to turn your headlights off if possible

• Drive carefully, park your car fully off the road

• Stay off of private property

Forecast sources
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-geomag-forecast.txt
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
SpaceWeatherLive