Full Sky Alberta Aurora Possible September 16
55% probability of Full Sky Alberta Aurora September 16 +/-24hrs
Cause: Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the September 14 X4.5 solar flare
Strong KP7/G3 geomagnetic storming is expected on 16 Sep with the possible glancing influence from the 14 Sep CME X4.5, combined with positive polarity CH HSS effects.
- Chris Ratzlaff
What can we expect?
55% probability for Full Sky Aurora (horizon to horizon, possibly visible within cities)
Aurora could be visible during the evenings of September 15 and 16
What happened?
A strong X4.5 solar flare occurred during the morning of September 14, coinciding with some of the Sun's corona being sent toward Earth (Coronal Mass Ejection / CME).
This CME is anticipated to begin arriving in 2 to 3 days.
If this CME interacts with Earth favourably, this could result in a very strong Aurora visible across Alberta.
Tips for observing Aurora from Alberta
Aurora is typically strongest in the hours around Midnight
An event such as this could be visible in the northern skies shortly after dusk
If possible, head outside of the city
Even if Aurora is visible within the city, colours will be most vibrant away from city lights
Don't park on the sides of highways, this is dangerous and illegal.
Use a location with a public parking lot (rural community halls and provincial parks offer great parking options)
Stay off of private property
There could be a lot of observers on the roads, so drive safely and watch out for others
Photography tips
Use a tripod, or some means to stabilize your camera/phone
If possible, set your camera to Manual
Aperture: lowest possible value
ISO: middle of the camera's range
Shutter: 5 to 30 seconds, depending on brightness of results
Use a distant point of light to manually focus the camera
Newer phones (iPhone, Android)
Use Night Mode
Older iPhones
Use the NightCap App and the Manual tips above
Older Android
Use Pro Mode, and the Manual tips above
Expectations
Full Sky (KP7 or greater) Aurora can be 100's of kms long over Alberta, can often be seen throughout the province, and possibly from within urban areas.
Locations: anywhere in Alberta with clear skies
Edmonton Latitudes
KP4 can be seen halfway up the northern sky, approaching overhead
KP5/G1 can be seen overhead
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
Calgary Latitudes
KP4 can be halfway up the northern sky
KP5/G1 can approach overhead
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
In the Mountains
KP4 Aurora may not be high enough to be visible over the mountains
KP5/G1 can peek over the mountain tops
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
Lethbridge Latitudes
KP4 Aurora may be visible on the northern horizon
KP5/G1 can can be halfway up the northern sky
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead
KP7/G3 and greater can be seen across the full sky and possibly under urban skies
Etiquette
If you're in an area with a lot of people, there will be cars with headlights on; don't let it upset you.
If you're parking in a place with a lot of people, try to turn your headlights off if possible
Drive carefully, park your car fully off the road
Stay off of private property
Forecast sources
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-geomag-forecast.txt
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
SpaceWeatherLive