NOAA’s 27 day Auroral forecast based on coronal hole activity for April suggests a quiet month for overhead Aurora (KP5+) across Alberta, aside from the first week of the month, where we might see KP5 activity. This may change with solar flare activity.
Unpredictable activity, in the form of solar flares and filament eruptions which cannot be forecast more than a few days in advance, is increasing as we approach Solar Maximum.
The 27 day forecasts from NOAA are based primarily on coronal hole-related activity from the previous month. As we move toward Solar Maximum over the next few years and start seeing more solar flare activity, these 28 day forecasts will become less relevant.
KP Expectations
Edmonton Latitudes
Kp4 can be seen halfway up the northern sky, approaching overhead
Kp5/G1 can be seen overhead
Kp6/G2 can be seen overhead
Calgary Latitudes
Kp4 can be halfway up the northern sky
Kp5 can approach overhead
Kp6/G2 can be seen overhead
In the Mountains
Kp4 Aurora may not be high enough to be visible over the mountains
Kp5/G can peek over the mountain tops
Kp6/G2 can be seen overhead
Lethbridge Latitudes
Kp4 Aurora may be visible on the northern horizon
Kp5/G1 can can be halfway up the northern sky
Kp6/G2 can be seen overhead
Forecast Source
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/.../aurora-forecast.html