51% probability for Aurora overhead across Alberta for May 11 +/-24hrs
72-Hour Aurora Forecast - May 11-13
Cause: Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the May 11 solar flare.
Continuing CME transit will likely lead to unsettled and active levels early on 11 May, with a chance of G1 levels. Arrival of the anticipated glancing blow CME later on 11 May, will likely lead to G1-G3 (Minor to Strong) storm levels with shock arrival followed by flanking edge bulk plasma magnetic field enhancements. Any CME influences would likely lead to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels of response on 12 May, with waning effects on 13 May leading to unsettled and active responses.
- Space Weather Prediction Centre
Expectations
KP7 Aurora can be 100's of kms long over Alberta, can often be seen throughout the province and may be possible to see from urban skies
Timing: 51% probability for KP7 May 11 +/- 24 hours
Locations: anywhere in Alberta with clear skies away
Edmonton Latitudes
KP4 can be seen halfway up the northern sky, approaching overhead
KP5/G1 can be seen overhead
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead and possibly under urban skies
Calgary Latitudes
KP4 can be halfway up the northern sky
KP5/G1 can approach overhead
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead and possibly under urban skies
In the Mountains
KP4 Aurora may not be high enough to be visible over the mountains
KP5/G1 can peek over the mountain tops
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead
Lethbridge Latitudes
KP4 Aurora may be visible on the northern horizon
KP5/G1 can can be halfway up the northern sky
KP6/G2 and greater can be seen overhead
Etiquette
If you're in an area with a lot of people, there will be cars with headlights on; don't let it upset you.
If you're parking in a place with a lot of people, try to turn your headlights off if possible
Drive carefully, park your car fully off the road
Stay off of private property
Forecast sources
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-geomag-forecast.txt
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
SpaceWeatherLive